Kerala is the only large Indian state where Covid-19 cases have been increasing consistently, but this is unlikely to be the start of a new wave in the state, say health experts


Over two weeks to July 11, the average daily new Covid-19 cases in Kerala have increased by 15.2% and the state accounts for about one in every four new infections in India, data from Covid19India.org show. No other state outside the northeast is showing such growth in new Covid-19 cases. The Indian Council of Medical Research has projected, in some scenarios, that India's third wave could begin as early as August. Could the rise in Kerala then be heralding the start of the third wave in India?

Unlikely, say health experts, pointing to the absence of a steep rise in infections. Cases are increasing at a slow rate in Kerala, despite the relaxation of lockdown restrictions and the rise of the more transmissible Delta variant in the state, they tell us. "Mobility is up, people are mixing and with Delta [variant dominating], the numbers should be shooting up, not stabilizing," Rajeev Sadanandan, the chief executive of Health Systems Transformation Platform (HSTP), a New Delhi-based nonprofit, and Kerala's former additional chief secretary of health, told IndiaSpend.

Kerala had about half as many people with Covid-19 antibodies compared to the national average, ahead of the second wave, per health ministry data. "Hitherto uninfected pockets of people getting infected are sustaining the current high numbers," Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University, Sonepat, told IndiaSpend, adding that these are not increasing substantially.

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