This map shows the proposed Bakerloo Line extension.
Note.
- There are new or improved stations at Old Kent Road 1, Old Kent Road 2, New Cross Gate and Lewisham.
- New Cross Gate station has Overground and Southern services.
- Lewisham station has Docklands Light Railway and Southern services.
- The future potential option going South is to take over the Hayes Line.
Could we provide improvements along the line of the Bakerloo Line Extension in a less disruptive and more affordable manner?
I will look at the various stations.
New Cross Gate
New Cross Gate station currently has the following services.
- Overground - Highbury & Islington and Crystal Palace - 4 tph
- Overground - Highbury & Islington and West Croydon - 4 tph
- Southern - London Bridge and Victoria via Sydenham - 2 tph
- Southern - London Bridge and Coulsdon Town via Sydenham - 2 tph
Note.
tph is trains per hour.
The Overground services provide an 8 tph service to the Elizabeth Line at Whitechapel station.
TfL may well increase the frequency of the two Overground services to 5 tph.
I suspect that the quickest way between New Cross Gate and Harrow & Wealdstone will be with changes at Whitechapel and Paddington.
- New Cross Gate and Whitechapel - Overground - 13 minutes.
- Whitechapel and Paddington - Elizabeth Line - 14 minutes.
- Paddington Interchange - 15 minutes
- Paddington and Harrow & Wealdstone - Bakerloo Line - 29 minutes
This gives a total time of 71 minutes.
As Bakerloo Line trains go between Elephant & Castle and Harrow & Wealdstone, which is 24 stations and the journey takes 48 minutes, this gives a figure of two minutes per station.
- This seems to fit Irene's Law, which I wrote about in Irene's Law – Estimating Tube Journey Times.
- So it looks like a direct train on the extension would take 54 minutes.
- That time fits well with the 71 minutes via the Elizabeth Line if fifteen minutes is allowed for the walk at Paddington.
I will do the trip for real today.
Lewisham
There are two ways to get from Lewisham to the Elizabeth Line.
- Take the Dockland's Light Railway to Canary Wharf. Estimated at 15 minutes.
- Take a train to Whitechapel, which needs a change of train at New Cross station. Estimated at 17 minutes minimum.
Neither are perfect.
I will try out these two trips today.
Hayes
The Hayes Line is often talked about as the final destination of the Bakerloo Line.
In More Frequent Trains And A New Station For The London Overground, I put forward my plan for connecting the Hayes Line to the New Cross branch of the London Overground.
This map from carto.metro.free.fr shows the lines at New Cross station.
Note.
The double-track East London Line, shown in orange, arrives from Surrey Quays station arrives in the North-Western corner of the map, becomes a single-track and then goes under the main lines before going into the bay platform D.
Hayes Line services use Platform C going South and Platform A going North.
Could the Overground going South divert into Platform C for Hayes?
It would appear there used to be a line connecting Platform A to the East London Line of the Overground. Could this line be reinstated?
This Google Map shows the same area.
Note.
- The London Overground track is clearly visible.
- The needed connection certainly looks possible, without too much heroic engineering.
- Although, I suspect it could need digital signalling to get everything to work smoothly. But that will happen anyway!
The big advantage of this approach, is that all stations between Whitechapel and Hayes, would have a direct connection to the Elizabeth Line.
Hayes Line services would still continue to Victoria and Cannon Street, although the frequency might be reduced, depending on how many Overground services used the route.
Old Kent Road 1 And Old Kent Road 2
I think there are two ways to serve this important area.
- The first would be to run a high-frequency bus service between Elephant & Castle and the two stations at New Cross.
- I also suspect, it would be possible to have a short extension of the Bakerloo Line to a double-ended station at New Cross Gate and New Cross stations.
I went into the second way in More Frequent Trains And A New Station For The London Overground, where I came to this conclusion.
I am drawn to these two conclusions.
The Bakerloo Line should be extended via two new Old Kent Road stations to a double-ended terminal station in New Cross with interchange to both New Cross Gate and New Cross stations.
The New Cross branch of the London Overground should be extended through Lewisham to Orpington and/or Hayes.
My preferred destination for the London Overground service could be Hayes.as this would surely help to free up paths through Lewisham and London Bridge.
I also feel, that the scheme would be much more affordable if high-specification buses were used between Elephant & Castle and the two stations at New Cross.
Conclusion
There are certainly possibilities to create an alternative route, with the same objectives as the Bakerloo Line Extension.
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