Could Negotiations Be In The Wind?

lobotero

Jun 30

The news of the mash-up between Wagner Group and Putin has brought about an interesting turn that could help the Ukraine-Russia thing.

I seriously doubt it.

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for over a year and there needs to be a stopping point....could this be a time for negotiations?

The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors "better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible," believing that Putin is more likely to "negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield." The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.

In view of President Putin's failure to escalate against Prigozhin and his willingness to negotiate a solution that made him look weak at home, there is possibly a place for diplomacy to resolve the war in Ukraine as well. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in the near term seem unlikely, but the possibility of a U.S. president making a difference should not be ignored. The fact that Putin refused to prosecute Prigozhin, and is willing to allow his mercenary forces to join the Russian army points to the Russian leader's hopes to avoid additional internal conflict. It's hard to know what Putin is thinking, but his willingness to compromise with Prigozhin as well as the fateful domestic challenge that he faces could make the Russian leader willing to entertain the possibility of negotiation. His dreams of restoring the Russian empire have been shattered.

If so, only the United States can address the national security problems of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine will want protection from future Russian acts of aggression. Russia will want to lessen the threat of Western encirclement on its vulnerable borders. No matter how this war ends, Russia will find itself in an existential security situation on its entire western frontier that only the United States can ameliorate. In addition, only the United States can lead the international effort to rebuild Ukraine. The United States will be indispensable to this process.

Has the Putin-Prigozhin Confrontation Opened a Door for Negotiation?

I do not think that any movement toward peace will come from this mutiny thing.

Why?

Simple the US does not want it right now.

Why say that?

I am so glad you asked.

The hypocrisy gets starker by the day. The same western media that strains to warn of the dangers of disinformation – at least when it comes to rivals on social media – barely bothers to conceal its own role in purveying disinformation in the Ukraine war.

In fact, the propaganda peddled by the media grows more audacious by the day – as two stories last week from the frontlines illustrate only too clearly.

Dominating headlines has been the environmental catastrophe created by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam under Russian control. Flood waters from the Dnipro river have ruined vast swathes of land downriver fromthe dam and forced many tens of thousands to flee their homes.

Rightly, the wrecking of the dam is being called an act of "ecological terrorism" – the second major one associated with the war, following last September's blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines supplying Russian gas to Europe.