2024 (artist's impression)
An ongoing theme at this blog is that The Current Year is not uniquely bad, we are not on the brink of a catastrophe like the Bronze Age Collapse, and that the sorts of problems we're having now are echoes of the sorts of problems we've always had.
The madness, corruption and stupidity align with an ancient pattern.
Same shit, different bucket.
But you won't believe me. You're so caught up in your end of days larp that you won't admit the present is about the same as the past, nor that the near future will also be similar.
You think we're coming off a golden age of Western Civilization, and that everything has gone to pot.
The only difference of opinion among my readers is exactly when it all went wrong. Was it 2013, 1969, 1914 or 1517?
How am I to convince you that things were always rubbish, that there were always scandals, that there was much to bemoan about the state of the world at any given point in history?
I won't convince you, of course. However, I reckon the following ought to give pause to a rational actor who's coming at this issue free of bias and too-online brain worms:
"Copilot, please generate two numbers between 1,910 to 2,010. Please also generate one random number from 0 to 1,900."
"Sure, I can generate some random numbers for you. Here they are:
- Two numbers between 1,910 to 2,010: 1,973 and 2,007
- One number from 0 to 1,900: 1,234"
Right, effers. Let's take these as years and have a look at what was going down. Depending on when your 'we'll all be rooned' date is, 1-3 of them ought to be wonderful times of virtuous government, homecooked meals and haircuts you could set your watch to, right?
2007
Ah, the pre-woke, pre-trans, pre-smartphone era. The pinnacle of human flourishing.
Anything else?
- The Iraq War troop surge. Do you remember the Iraq War? Afghanistan? There were 7,054 US deaths in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts combined, plus 1,464 allies. There were also 8,518 deaths among military contractors. Western countries have since moved to Cold War-style proxy wars, which I suppose is better for us but not as good as peace would be.
- Subprime was just coming to a head. See graph:
- 32 people killed in the Virginia Tech Massacre.
- Benazir Bhutto assassinated, setting off riots and political turmoil in nuclear-armed Pakistan.
- Noble Peace Prize awarded to Al Gore.
- 80K dead from earthquake in Sichuan Province.
As 2007 is the most recent of the three years we'll examine, here are some facts that may be relevant. They look similar for other developed countries:
- Inflation-adjusted median US household income rose from $62,641 in 2007 to $68,703 today. And that was just before the big recession, right at the height of the bubble.
- US life expectancy rose from 77.99 to 79.25. Yes, even after all that unpleasantness.
1973
Back when music was real music and junk food had cane sugar in it. A time before the dog-eat-dog economic rationalism of the 80s, when the Cold War forced the West to have a moral spine.
What else?
- The US and its proxies officially pulled out of the Vietnam War. US deaths in that conflict totalled 58,220 and those for non-Vietnamese allies totalled 5,099.
- Watergate. The way the media treated Nixon was identical to their approach to Trump, and the Deep State would have similarly waged lawfare against Nixon had he not resigned. There have been several Trumps in US history.
- The Yom Kippur War. What's new is old.
- The OPEC Oil Embargo and the oil crisis. At its peak, oil reached about $260 per barrel in 2024 dollars, compared to about $80 now.
- The average US inflation rate was 6.22%.
- Roe vs. Wade. I swear I generated these years randomly.
- In this year there was also a lot of terrorist activity, including by leftist groups and the IRA. A JAL flight was hijacked by a combo of the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. A black nationalist called Mark Essex went on a spree shooting of white people in New Orleans, resulting in nine deaths.
1234
King and country! The high Middle Ages; the exact period we need to retvrn to. The Church was large and in charge, there was swift corporal or capital punishment for most crimes, and monarchs prospered if their lands and peasants prospered too. These serfs only did a 4-Hour Work Week and spent the rest of their time in prayer, having power naps or carousing with bar wenches.
Also…
- The Mongols invaded Europe, getting as far as Poland, Hungary and the Balkans, and they defeated the Rus. This conflict is estimated to have wiped out 3-15 million people in Europe, or 5-20% of the population.
- The Sixth Crusade. This was primarily a diplomatic quest by the Holy Roman Emperor, Frederick II. It yielded Christian control over some sacred sites, including Jerusalem, which was recaptured by the Muslims a few years later. The crusade caused some grief because (a) neither Christians nor Muslims were happy with the outcome, (b) Frederick II married the heir to Jerusalem, his 14-year-old cousin, in contravention of Church law, (c) Frederick also alienated his allies by demanding tribute from them, and (d) he got excommunicated for the above plus for negotiating with the Muslims.
- The Imperial Diet of Mainz attempted to resolve the conflict between the Holy Roman Emperor and the Pope, but ended in a riot.
- The massacre of the Cathars was around its peak at this time, with the Cathars also committing atrocities. Over the whole conflict, around a million people on all sides died in southern France.
- The Mongols also attacked much of Asia, causing carnage everywhere. There was a significant drop in the world population at this time, maybe around 11%. Compare that to anything in the last century – barely a blip. Together, the two world wars may have reduced the population by 3-4%. But of course, my reader believes that the world population is about to shrink to few dozen scattered survivors by 2030, himself among them because of his stealthy exurb location and his stash of Graham crackers.
- The Mayan civilization was in severe decline, with many cities abandoned.
Summing up
2007 was a decent year to be alive unless you lost your job and/or your home over the following years, which many people did. It wasn't notable for any particular uptick in violence or disease, but we're a bit better off now by some measures.
1973 was an okay year for most people, as the chaos of terrorist attacks did not impact the majority. It was an economically tough time. For most of the Third World, especially Asia, life is vastly better today on almost every metric.
1234 was objectively a shit year to be alive.
2024 is fine. Covid and Covidianism have long passed their half-life. Wars continue but we keep them at arm's length. Inflation is within the ordinary range by historical standards. Unemployment is low. We are healthier, wealthier and safer than ever before.
"But Niko!" my reader antagonizes. "I still want to go back to 2007. I want to go back to 1973!"
I know, my brother. Me too.
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