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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Issues Changing the Nation: Never Ending AUKUS Submarine Policy Sagas

March 14, 2024 : The AIM Network, By Denis Bright The issue of AUKUS has resurfaced from the murky depths of undersea politics. ABC News graphics remind readers of the latest additional payment to fast track the AUKUS deal with its proposed co…
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Issues Changing the Nation: Never Ending AUKUS Submarine Policy Sagas

Christina Macpherson

March 14

March 14, 2024 : The AIM Network, By Denis Bright

The issue of AUKUS has resurfaced from the murky depths of undersea politics. ABC News graphics remind readers of the latest additional payment to fast track the AUKUS deal with its proposed cost of at least $US368 billion.

Public policy interest in the AUKUS submarine saga is now being propelled by doubts about US construction deadlines for the high technology nuclear-powered submarines. The US Navy confirmed that it will halve the number of nuclear-powered submarines on offer in its 2025 budget. Second-hand LA Class submarines will not be available for sharing with Australia as they will be needed in the USA. Even the construction schedule for AUKUS-class submarines in Adelaide is now in doubt (ABC News 13 March 2024).

For readers who are new to this issue, I might restate some background to the AUKUS deals. The commercial military industrial complexes do not advertise their hidden details. Making a request to Gemini-Google Bard provided this summary for verification by readers:

  • US Virginia-class submarines: Australia will acquire at least three (and potentially up to five) Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines from the US. The first of these might be in early 2030s. The leading corporations from the US military industrial complexes are General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls Industries (Newport News Shipbuilding). Numerous supportive technology companies engage in preparations for these developments including involvement from Boeing.
  • AUKUS-class submarines: Provided through US and British commercial providers of a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines during the 2040s. The British firms particularly embedded in the AUKUS Programme are:

: BAE Systems will play a critical role in the construction of the AUKUS submarines.

: Babcock International will be involved in construction and maintenance.

: Rolls-Royce will be involved in design and delivery of the nuclear reactors.

  • Temporary Rotational Deployment UK Astute-class and US Virginia-class submarines are planned on a rotational basis to HMAS Stirling in Western Australia.

The US Studies Centre in Sydney (9 February 2024) offered commentary by its Director Professor Peter Dean and research associate Alice Nason:

AUKUS has become a case study in generational politics. Public opinion polling reveals only 33 per cent of Gen Z and millennial voters believe it's a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines, compared with 66 per cent of voters aged sixty-five and over.

Still, on some things, all generations agree: a plurality of Australian voters feel nuclear-powered submarines are not worth the cost to Australian taxpayers. Only 21 per cent of voters believe the submarines warrant their $368bn price tag.

These apprehensions, especially among young people, should alarm our policymakers. The people who are expected to staff Australia's new submarine enterprise as of now don't support it. This is only the tip of the iceberg for Australia's workforce challenge.

Australia will build up a sizeable military industrial complex over the next half-century if the AUKUS deals proceed as planned. Lobbying in support of AUKUS has attracted retired political leaders from both sides of politics who are committed to the goal of a more militarized Australia (Anton Nilsson Crikey.com 23 January 2024).

From the far-off United States, Anna Massoglia and Dan Auble from the Open Secrets site were able provide details of lobbying by major corporations in during 2023 just in support of AUKUS. Boeing, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics topped the lobbying spending with a combined expenditure of over $US80 million.

David Hardaker of Crikey.com exposed the roles of conservative lobbyists in support of the efforts of the military corporates (31 May 2023). This is an exercise in investigative journalism at its best:

A Crikey investigation into the power of conservative political lobbyists CT Group has revealed that two US companies represented by CT are set to be among the biggest winners of the "forever" AUKUS defence deal hatched by former prime minister Scott Morrison.

One of the companies, General Dynamics, is the lead contractor for constructing the US navy's fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. The other company, Centrus Energy, is the leading provider of nuclear fuel for US national security purposes and for naval reactors.

CT's US entity, CTF Global LLC, has acted as a lobbyist for General Dynamics and Centrus Energy since it set up shop in Washington in 2018, taking on the client list of long-term lobbyist Larry Grossman who was seeking to extend the global reach of his firm.

The evolution of the CIT Group as defence lobbyists came as it reached the peak of its political influence in Australia at the end of 2018 with its then-Australian CEO Yaron Finkelstein joining Morrison's staff as principal private secretary.

In parallel with Australia, the CT Group also enjoyed the closest of relationships with then-UK prime minister Boris Johnson. David Canzini, a former CT executive, was part of Johnson's team as a deputy chief of staff.

Readers can follow the investigative trails offered through Crikey.com:

Explore the Series

  1. Crosby Textor: the pollsters that took over the Liberal Party and became a global power.
  2. Mere coincidence? Crosby Textor is the common link in Morrison's AUKUS deal.
  3. Scott Morrison issues blanket denial on nuclear submarine questions.
  4. Spooks and spies: Crosby Textor moves into shadowy territory.
  5. Crosby Textor group's influence on the Liberals has been pervasive. Is it time to cut the link?
  6. Crosby Textor's influence on prime ministers helped it dominate the Anglosphere.

In this era of cost-of-living politics, no one on either side of politics seems to worry about the irregular additional costs of the AUKUS deals. There was an unexpected allocation of $A835 million to France was imposed on the Labor Government for breach of contract from the cancellation of Malcolm Turnbull's submarine deal.
The Register of Lobbyists and the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (the Scheme) from the Attorney-General's Department do not provide easy access to the specific roles played by lobbyists for firms associated with military industrial complexes. Just knowing which lobbyists have an association with a company like the CT Group is of little practical purpose in investigative journalism. This is a sample register extract for the CT Group which was mentioned in the Crikey.com articles.

The LinkedIn site offers more clues by showing which ex-politicians or former military personnel and policy advisers with links to Australian and global military industrial companies through both lobbying activities or the convening of forum events or other corporate links. There is nothing sinister about the openness of the opportunities offered through LinkedIn which opens a new world of connections for further investigation by journalists.

Here are just three examples. Arthur Sinodinos, Joel Fitzgibbon, Lynton Crosby

........ Critical discussion might be painful to political elites. Armed conflicts in a nuclear age are even worse. Let's pause for some reflection before more jingoism gets Australia into real trouble through over-commitment to global corporate military industrial complexes and the expansion of a stronger home-grown variant in Australia.  https://theaimn.com/issues-changing-the-nation-never-ending-aukus-submarine-policy-sagas/

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